BY Elizabeth Liedel Turnbull

This year was, by any analysis, a significant year for electric vehicles (EVs). 2023 had a dizzying level of new activity and announcements, as well as surprises in store, warning us that though the end of the gas vehicle is inevitable, the road to getting there will have more twists and turns than we may expect. 

While following industry trends was a fun side exercise for utility EV staff in the last decade, 2023 proved that staying on top of what’s happening is now critical for utilities as they plan their own work and design EV programs for their customers.

As the year winds to a close, here’s my list of the top 5 EV Trends of 2023—and some Utility predictions.

Trend #5: The EV Market Undergoes Growing Pains

Let’s start with the indisputably good news: the EV market continued to grow by leaps and bounds in 2023, with over 50% growth year-over-year. According to Atlas Public Policy, in Q3 EVs topped 10% market share of new vehicle sales, and U.S. sales surpassed one million EVs sold in a single year. At the same time, some automakers are struggling to manage production costs and accurately project EV demand, and interest rates and concern over charging availability are making some buyers wary.

The upshot of all this is an over-supply of EVs in 2023—after two years of under-supply—with dealerships raising the alarmthat EVs aren't selling, and some automakers announcing reductions in their production plans. This has generated some scare-mongering media coverage of the EV market, and general pessimism about how the market will unfold over the next couple of years.

What’s Next

If the automakers who’ve done this for decades are struggling to project EV demand for 2024 and beyond, I won’t even bother to try. My advice to utilities? Don’t over-rotate on the uncertainty in the EV market right now, and don’t slow down.

The market continues to grow, and with more affordable, reliable, and ubiquitous charging options, it will continue to do so for some time to come. And don’t forget that while mainstream news outlets are focused on light-duty passenger vehicles, the real impact to the grid will be when the electric buses and trucks start hitting the road in higher numbers—and nothing I’ve seen so far suggests that medium- and heavy-duty EV forecasts are off-base.

Meanwhile, the work of utilities in all this—planning distribution system upgrades, implementing customer programs, designing EV rates, supporting charging infrastructure, advising fleet customers, and helping residential customers understand their options—continues to be critical, no matter what the adoption rates are.

Utilities should also be aware that consumer expectations are shifting as the market moves past early adopters—with implications for customer education, speed of interconnection of EV chargers, and the importance of managed charging program design.

Trend #4: The Impact of Federal Leadership Becomes Clear

In 2023, the impact of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA, aka the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law), with its billions in clean transportation funding, really started to take shape. The Federal Highway Administration finalized the National EV Infrastructure (NEVI) guidance for states, and in December, the first two NEVI sites were opened to EV drivers, in Ohio and New York.

This year also marked the first round of Charging and Fueling Infrastructure (CFI) competitive grant applications, and rounds of grants and rebates for clean school and transit buses. And the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed in 2022, offered a $7,500 tax credit to buyers of a broader set of EVs in 2023.

Beyond funding, the IIJA-mandated Joint Office of Energy and Transportation continued to build out its technical assistance program, a key resource for the industry. The Joint Office also launched the ChargeX Consortium, which strives to improve the driver experience through connectivity and data sharing standards.

In June, the National Renewable Energy Lab released a crucial report estimating light-duty demand for EVSE by state—an important resource for utilities and states that lack the resources to develop this type of forecast themselves. Meanwhile, the EPA is considering stringent vehicle emission standardsthat may establish more certainty for the future of the EV market.

Separate federal announcements supported emerging topics like EV charging reliability and workforce development. And through its Justice40 Initiative, the federal government has put a stake in the ground that 40% of clean transportation investments should benefit marginalized communities—and has created resources for communities to measure this impact.

What’s Next

The federal government will have a significant impact on the EV landscape in 2024 as NEVI stations are built, electric buses are delivered to customers, and standards are established. The federal government will continue to be an invaluable resource—and perhaps, sometimes, a little bit of a headache—for utilities. Since the utility planning cycle can sometimes be as long as (or longer than!) the government planning cycle, it will remain incumbent upon utilities to keep up with all the developments at the federal level that provide opportunities for their customers.

To be the best custodians of ratepayer funds, utilities need to create programs that are complementary to, not duplicative of, what the government offers. Utilities can expect that regulators and customers will have plenty of questions about federal programs. Utilities can also expect stakeholders to take note of the Justice40 requirements and press for utility program designs that match or exceed the federal carveouts for underserved communities.

Meanwhile, utilities will need to stay flexible—the biggest news on the federal front in 2024 will be the presidential election, the outcome of which will undoubtedly impact the way the IIJA, IRA and other federal efforts are deployed.

Trend #3: Infrastructure Timelines Befuddle the Industry

The length of time it takes to install EV charging has long been top of mind to those of us who are in the business—as in, keeping me up at night—but with increased investment from the federal government and others, 2023 is the year that the topic began to percolate in more mainstream conversations.

This complex issue—which hinges on variables like site host contracting, design decisions, local permitting backlogs, utility interconnection queues, and equipment supply chains—drew attention across the board, with legislatures, regulators, stakeholders, funders such as the federal government, and the media beginning to ask questions of utilities and others.

The reality is that today, even the most experienced installers of light-duty DC fast charging equipment cite timelines of roughly a year from site identification to charger energization. And for the bigger installations still to come—think of highway fast-charging plazas or transit bus depots—it’s easy to imagine timelines of multiple years.

As a result, more and more attention is focused on what the industry can do to trim down these timelines—streamlining local permitting, whether through best practice or requirement; regulating utility energization timelines; or allowing proactive infrastructure investments in the distribution grid to support the forecasted adoption.

What’s Next

This trend only ranks at #3 this year, but I suspect it will outstrip every other issue on this list next year, because it is the one issue that I don’t see readily resolving soon—in fact, as more and more funding is authorized for EV charging and other forms of electrification, and adoption of EVs continues apace, this issue might get worse before it gets better.

Moving faster on EV charging installation will require massive effort, with many of the moving parts controlled by entities like permitting authorities and site hosts, for whom EV charging may not be a top priority. As we move into 2024, utilities may find themselves playing defense on topics like energization timelines, while simultaneously playing offense as they pursue proactive infrastructure investments that challenge the very basics of the utility regulatory model.

To prepare for this new future, utilities should start documenting processes and timelines, tracking performance closely and identifying places where timelines can be trimmed, or where stakeholders can be helpful. It is essential that utilities maintain the position that the electrification of everything is inevitable, doable, and affordable within reasonable bounds of cost and time. Proving it will be an ongoing task.

Trend #2: EV Charging is Reliably Unreliable

I plugged in a car to a public charger ten times this year, and two of those experiences were near-duds (in one, we had to call customer service to reset the charger; in the other, we drew about 51 kW off a 350-kW charger—with a vehicle that can charge at up to 175 kW). That’s a 20% fail rate for me personally, which is a lot lower than some estimates of charger failure—and I charge in public a lot less than some people do. 

After gaining in prominence throughout 2022, 2023 was the year that charger reliability really took center stage, to the point where rumors of charger failure are impacting EV sales. That’s not a good look for an industry that prides itself on delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy.

What’s Next

Some of the biggest issues have been that charger reliability has lacked industry-standard metrics, and even remote diagnostics are incapable of painting the true picture of EV charging conditions on the ground. Luckily, progress is being made in these areas, with the federal government leading the way (see Trend #4) and an industry-wide coalescence around a certain leading manufacturer’s charging connector (see Trend #1, next).

Utility proceedings are seeing increased focus on ensuring that chargers are well-supported throughout their expected lives—for example, through service-level agreements or funding set-aides—to keep chargers maintained. I suspect that progress will be made on charger reliability in 2024—while the issue likely won’t be resolved by the end of the year, there’s reason to think we’ll be on the right path.

The bigger question is how long it will take to repair the reputation of EV charging, and whether the reliability issue has cemented itself in drivers’ minds to the point where it will take them a long time to consider an EV. This is one area where communication is everything—and utilities can play a major role in touting reliability statistics of EV charging in their service areas (once it’s, you know, worth touting).

Trend #1: NACS Goes Nuts

When Tesla released the technical specifications for their previously proprietary charging connector and proudly declared it the “North American Charging Standard” in late 2022, the industry response was pretty much crickets (except for people who rightfully pointed out that NACS was not a true standard at that point). All that changed in May of 2023, when Ford announced that its vehicles would be able to charge at NACS stations with an adapter in 2024 and would incorporate NACS natively starting with model year 2025. Within weeks, GM made a similar announcement.

Today, nearly every major automaker—and some non-major ones, like Rivian—have indicated that they are shifting to NACS. Meanwhile, the charging industry is left scrambling to catch up. To hasten more clarity on the subject, the federal Joint Office of Energy and Transportation helped fast-track a NACS standard development process by the Society of Automotive Engineers, which means that NACS is no longer proprietary to Tesla—in fact, control over NACS is now out of Tesla’s hands altogether.

In December, SAE finalized the NACS certification, aka J3400. After years of handwringing and plodding progress to align charging standards to be more driver-friendly, in 2023 NACS took the industry by storm. It’s fair to say that this new standard is the future of EV charging in the United States.

What’s Next?

In 2024, we can expect the NACS shake-up to continue to impact the EV and charging markets. EVSE manufacturers are working to incorporate the plug onto their hardware, and there’s pressure on the Federal Highway Administration to require NACS in the charging standards that govern the NEVI program and other federal funds.

Meanwhile, many questions about NACS remain unanswered. Will the ease of a Tesla charging experience—long the gold standard within the industry—still hold when the vehicles, chargers and software are not Tesla’s? What role will adapters play in the near term? Will the announcements temporarily suppress EV demand, as drivers wait a year to buy a NACS vehicle?

Utilities, which have tended to prioritize incentives for “non-proprietary” charging infrastructure, can expect greater scrutiny of their EVSE programs, including pressure to make changes to their qualified products lists. Utilities that own and operate charging infrastructure can expect questions about whether, when and how they’ll integrate NACS connectors, and how they’ll manage the driver experience both before and after the switch.

2024 From the Utility Perspective

All this adds up to a lot of work for utilities in 2024—and I know EVs are not the only new variable that utilities are grappling with. To sum it up:

• Don’t slow down; there’s plenty of work still ahead
• Stay on top of new resources—funding and answers are out there, and you don’t have to recreate the wheel
• Be ready for regulator, customer and stakeholder questions on timelines and reliability
• Adapt your programs to new market conditions

Lastly: as ever, customer education will remain paramount for utilities, which means more staff time (customer program staff, but also communications, marketing, and social media teams) put toward understanding and synthesizing the latest news and updating customer communications accordingly.

This is a complex, fast-changing landscape, and customers will continue to look to trusted sources of information to help make it simpler. Utilities cannot afford to fall behind.