"Tesla‘s Model Y still holds a comfortable lead over the competition. That’s more than double the sales of the #2 top selling vehicle, Tesla’s Model 3. But it’s hard to ignore the rising prevalence of Chinese EVs. The next five best-selling EV vehicles are Chinese, including three from BYD."

It's hard not to look at this chart and be overwhelmed with just how far Tesla and Chinese are ahead of incumbent OEMs with EVs.

Indeed, only one incumbent has a vehicle in the top 9 selling models: Volkswagen Group, with the ID4 at #8.

No Toyota Motor Corporation, no Ford Motor Company, no General Motors, no Hyundai Motor Company ), no Nissan Motor Corporation, no Stellantis. That tells most of what you need to know.

However, There Are 3 More Implications to be Aware Of:

1) The Chinese will be a HUGE Player in Global Automotive

We're a little insulated here in North America, but everywhere else will see a huge influx of Chinese EVs over the next 5 years. Last month I drove the BYD Atto 3 in Portugal at World Shopper Talk Show and I can confirm it’s a very good vehicle. It would personally not be my first pick, but it does have a lot of showroom appeal. Every incumbent OEM should be preparing for this NOW!

2) Mainstream is Easy Pickings for Chinese

Most incumbent OEMs seem to be trying to push their EVs upmarket to ensure profitability. This is a guaranteed way to lose market share and volume. It's also a key reason why dealers are complaining in North America - most dealer offerings are FAR too expensive for most people, even accounting for gas and maintenance savings.

Most of the Chinese brand models shown below are low cost, and most will fit well into Europe, Asia, and South/Central America.

3) Tesla: You Ain't Seen Nuthin' Yet!

The Model 3 and Model Y have enjoyed massive success, so much so that the Model Y is the world's #1 selling vehicle, ousting the Toyota Corolla after a very long run. Today we're all talking about Cybertruck right now, the reality is that this will be relatively niche.

However, the new entry "Model 2" will be HUGE volume, as Tesla has extremely aggressive volume ambitions to achieve (20 million annually by 2030). This will be THE mainstream car, affordable for almost all new car buyers.

While some incumbents will begin to wake up, I would not be surprised to see more of the same in top 9 global performers for a while. Do you agree with this analysis? Will the Chinese and Model 2 dominate even more in 5 years?