The race is on in the US to build out the necessary charging infrastructure to support an expected 45-50 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road in the US by the end of 2030. Up for debate, however, is how many Level 2 and DC fast chargers will actually be needed to support this huge growth in EVs.
In my May 19 state of the industry keynote presentation at the Electrify Expo Industry Day in Long Beach, I shared a simple calculation based on the current ratio of BEVs (excluding PHEVs) to chargers. At roughly 16 EVs to every Level 2 and DC fast charger deployed in the US at the end of 2022, the US would need roughly 2.8 million public chargers at the end of 2030.
22 Times as Many Chargers Needed in 2030 as 2022?
Wow. That is a lot of charging infrastructure to be added, in fact, 22 times the number of installed public chargers at the end of 2022. But is that about how many chargers the US will need to add in the next 7.5 years?
A quick Google search and you find several forecasts from leading analyst and consulting firms that are in the general neighborhood of my simple ratio-based calculation. In fact, most of the projections below are based on less than 30 million BEVs on the road versus our (EVAdoption’s) forecast of nearly 50 million. So, using their ratios of EVs to chargers, most of them would likely be north of 3 million, except for McKinsey which used 44 million for its 2030 passenger vehicle forecast.
$300 Billion to Build Out EV Charging Infrastructure by 2030
Doing simple math, it would cost about $68.4 billion to deploy all these public chargers. Let’s use the S&P Global Mobility forecast and EVAdoption cost estimates:
Now, this estimate also does not include private chargers such as those located at office buildings and apartment complexes that are only available to employees and tenants respectively. If we estimate a combined 10 million Level 2 chargers, we are looking at another $200 billion. And then add the cost of home Level 1 and Level 2 chargers and perhaps another $40 billion. Add that all up and the US is looking at potentially north of $300 billion in costs to build out EV charging infrastructure.
Factors Affecting the Number of EV Chargers Needed
In future articles, we will do deep dives into how many chargers we at EVAdoption think will be required, plus all the factors that will determine how many are actually needed. The following, however, is a high-level overview of the key factors that will have a significant impact on the number of chargers needed:
Electric vehicles: The number of EVs on the road is of course the foundation of how many public chargers are needed, but there are still several key variables beyond a sheer number of vehicles, including:
As a higher percentage of future BEVs can charge at speeds north of 250 kW, charging sessions can be shorter, reducing the number of DC fast chargers needed.
The benefit of this higher ratio of chargers per site is that every few minutes a driver is done charging — so even if there is a wait — it may be less than 5 minutes. When there are say only 4 or 6 DCFCs per site, it might be 10-20 minutes before a charger opens.
Deployment Types: In theory, public DC fast chargers should only be needed when drivers are on road trips of 200-500+ miles. As Level 2 charging is built out at the following location types, fewer DC fast chargers should be needed:
For EV drivers without convenient access to a charger where they live, workplace charging is a huge benefit and advantage, especially for those with longer commutes and driving shorter range BEVs or PHEVs. The more ubiquitous workplace charging becomes, the fewer times EV drivers will need to access public Level 2 and DC fast chargers during the work week.
Consumer Education and Demographics: EV charging is not like refueling an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) at a gas station. Drivers of an ICE vehicle drive until their car or truck’s vehicle reaches near empty and they pull into a gas station, fill up their tank in 5-7 minutes, and head back out on the road. Refueling an EV, however, is more akin to how you charge a smartphone — which is when it is “parked.”
Or as I like to say “charging is parking.” Unfortunately, many future and new EV drivers assume and expect that refueling an EV should be the same as an ICE vehicle. While at one level that is a reasonable expectation, it is a bit like expecting a smartphone to always be 100% charged because landline phones were always plugged in and “fully charged.”
I don’t know what percentage of EV drivers who COULD charge at home but over-rely on public charging, but even if it is a relatively small percentage, that could mean the availability of 1-2 more charging sessions for EV drivers who NEED to use a public charger. And as more apartments and workplaces add EV chargers, these drivers will have more options than public chargers.
As charging apps and in-car navigation get smarter and more EV drivers are experienced and aware, their habits may free up chargers, soon making them available to more drivers throughout the day.
The result being that as EV buyer demographics evolve a higher percentage of EV drivers may rely on access to charging at their apartment or condo or need to access workplace or public charging.
There are literally dozens of factors that will affect how many public Level 2 and DC fast chargers are needed in the US in the coming years. Above are just some of them, but simple current ratios of EVs to EV chargers while helpful, may not be a good indicator of how many chargers are needed in the future. We will dive further into this topic in future articles and likely offer our own EVAdoption forecast of needed chargers in 2030.
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