BY JOHN VOELCKER

You may have seen dire headlines that EV sales have dried up. They haven't. Electric vehicles sold reasonably well in 2023, and here's our forecast for the coming year.

Over the past few months, multiple media outlets have suggested U.S. sales of electric vehicles are losing steam, or have stalled out, or look grim for 2024, or that makers, dealers, and buyers are dawdling. 

Even Hertz, which was going all in on EVs two years ago, is now reducing its EV fleet. What's going on? Some point to carmakers delaying or reducing previous EV investments; others suggest the U.S. (and other nations won't hit their goals for EV sales percentages in 2030 or 2035. A few even questions whether the EV transition will happen at all.

There's just one little problem: Last year, U.S. sales of EVs were the highest ever, both in sheer numbers and as a percentage of the overall new-car market. Global sales: ditto. The EV Sales Tracker from EVadoption estimates nearly 1.2 million battery-electric vehicles and another 190,000 plug-in hybrids were sold in 2023, totaling 1.36 million vehicles. That's 8.8 percent of the total of 15.5 million, per Wards Intelligence—and it represents EVs' highest-ever share of new-car sales.

Moreover, 2024 is expected to set another new record for volume of EVs sold and their share of the total market. Colin McKerracher of Bloomberg projects 2024 EV sales in the U.S. at just under 1.9 million units, making up 13 percent of new-car purchases. This year should see fewer of the supply constraints that hobbled availability over the last four years. Depending on a host of factors, some analysts suggest overall vehicle sales could be 1 million vehicles or more higher than last year.

Note 2023 sales of battery-electric cars, at roughly 8 percent, equaled those of conventional hybrid models, also at about 8 percent. As before, half of those EV sales come from Tesla—which has sold roughly half the 2.5 million EVs that have entered U.S. roads since 2011.

Ups and Downs in Growth Rate

So, what is going on in the EV market lately? First, growth in EV sales slowed in the second half of the year compared to the first half. That likely stemmed from a variety of causes, including higher consumer interest rates, a dearth of inexpensive EVs, shortages of some popular models, and publicity about the unreliability of some public EV charging stations. It was always clear the growth of EVs would have ups and downs. But note, a decline in the rate of sales growth is not a decline in actual sales.

Second, some makers—most notably GM and Ford—delayed investments to add future EV battery or assembly capacity. They gave various reasons, but pushing out a factory startup date by a year isn't canceling it altogether. In an era of much pricier loan rates, corporations too must conserve cash where possible.

Third, a few significant new vehicles are now landing at dealerships, among them the 2024 Kia EV9 three-row mid-size family SUV. Dimensionally about the same size as the Kia Telluride, its longer wheelbase gives more interior room and offers a usable third row—at a starting price well below those of other three-row EV SUVs on sale already, including the Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV, Rivian R1S, and Tesla Model X. A Hyundai Ioniq 7 sibling will follow toward the end of this year; both will be built at a new EV-only plant in Georgia that should open before the end of 2024.